Note: This was originally published in Adam Keesling’s Napkin Math newsletter, which you can find here. Welp, it’s a nail-biter. Yet again, despite the predictions of polls and pundits, there was no blue wave and no clear landslide victory last night, and there’s not likely to be a clear winner for days. Why are we …
Can Political Betting Markets Predict Election Outcomes? Read More »
Or, some thoughts on the theory of bid-ask spreads in gambling markets One of the things I’ve found interesting to think about for a few months now is how spreads and odds get set by bookmakers. I’ve written a bit about this before, in terms of how the line gets set, but also think it’s …
For any number of reasons, I spend a decent amount of time thinking about how lines are set at a sportsbook. I think there are a couple common misconceptions about how a point spread is created. An analogy to the stock market is useful. When talking about how the stock market works, John Maynard Keynes …